Forecasting in our country, of whatever sphere of life is not in question, an ungrateful thing. I mean the real projections, not authoritative in terms of "expediency" of analysts who change their forecasts as soon as a new factor or situation is now beginning to unfold in one direction, wrote Prostobank consulting.
Over the past year and a half the same people were saying at first about the collapse of the banking system, then on the normal situation in domestic banks. Projections of the rate changes every few weeks, and as soon as the dollar began to appreciate, it appeared the phrase "Our forecast is 10 UAH / USD before year's end, as soon as the strengthening hryvnia, then the predictions dramatically changed to" 7,5 UAH. dollars with the prospect of below 7.
I will not give in his forecast for the mortgage market no firm values, uncontested allegations and so on. My arguments will be based on the most likely scenario for the coming years. This scenario will be between two extremes: from the deepening crisis, minimize the program with the IMF, prolonging the crisis in the world, default and uncontrolled emissions - to the rapid recovery of demand for Ukrainian goods on world markets, political stability, a return of capital in Ukraine, for reviving the global economy.
So, the main key factors for the development of events in the next 3 years like that.
In the next 2-3 years mortgage programs will remain at a level that was formed at the end of 2009. Namely:
* High initial contributions (mostly 30-50%),
* The high cost of loans and issuance of short term loans
* Stricter requirements on the official income borrowers.
The main reasons for this situation are:
* Lack of cheap resources from banks. Until the end of 2008 more than 80% of mortgage loans issued in foreign currency (95% of which - U.S. dollars). Banks received funding from parent institutions, and resort to debt finance in foreign currency markets in a low percentage (5-8% per annum), giving out loans at 9.11% per annum in foreign currency on the domestic market.
This hryvnia loans were more expensive, and accounted for 16-18% per annum. In 2010, lending in the currency greatly limited budget resources to foreign markets there, financing and refinancing of parent structures of the NBU is mainly directed at addressing the current liquidity problems, the formation of reserves for problem debts.
NBU refinance banks under 15,5-17% per annum, rates on fixed deposits ranges between 18-23% per annum. Accordingly, with the margin the bank, borrowing costs will not fall below 22%;
* With high initial assessments of banks insure themselves against the depreciation of the collateral. After the fall of property prices in many mortgage bank can not close the amount of the loan granted and after the implementation of the pledge. High initial contribution insures bank from a fall in prices on the value of the contribution, ie banks include the possibility of settling the price for a further maximum of 50%;
* Lack of long resources. Most of the attracted deposits (150.53 billion UAH. From 210.07 billion) have up to 1 year and provide free access to funds. With such short resource banks can not start a massive issuance of long credit;
* If previously banks were taken into account all income borrowers, but today are taken into account only officially confirmed. Also taken into consideration the borrower's job security, namely: in what industry he works (how much the industry has suffered from the crisis), how long he had been with the organization and in what position. In the context of falling real incomes and a significant shadowing of the economy to fulfill these conditions are difficult;
* Currency risks does not allow actively translating to cheaper foreign currency reserves in the hryvnia, because no one can accurately predict the course is not only a long period, but also for the current year;
* Banks will continue to have problems in balance with the bad loans and the provisions for them;
* Due to political instability, lack of budget for 2010 and increased potential budget deficit, forecast the adoption of public financing programs available to the public credit programs do not have to.
At more or less pre-crisis levels of mortgage lending will return to the end of 2012 - the beginning of 2013.
Interest rates will drop, and how - will depend on the level of inflation in the country. Since the main resource for credit will be resources on the domestic market, the rate on deposits will be guided by inflation plus 2-3%. In 2010, inflation is projected at 10-12%, provided that it will not be made an issue under a large budget deficit.
In 2011-2012 is possible to predict improvement in the economy of Ukraine, the situation on the external capital markets also improved, thus avoiding a large budget deficit (increase in tax revenues, deshadowization economy, the ability to refinance public debt).
Consequence would be to avoid a major issue of the hryvnia. Also, inflation will be constrained by the lack of a strong increase in utility tariffs, which is an essential component of inflation in 2009-2010, potentially strengthening the hryvnia, which reduce the price of imported goods. Reduction of dollarization of the economy will allow the NBU to better carry out its monetary policy, which would increase the possibility of the central bank to influence inflation.
Thus, we can predict inflation at 8-10%, respectively, the deposit will be held at rates 12-14%, with the margin the bank 4-6%, the cost of credit resources will be 17-20%. Margin decreased to such values because of the risk reduction (general economic, political, currency).
You can also make the assumption that because of the ban to change interest rates on loans granted by the practice of floating interest rates will be popular, thus reducing bank margins due to removal of the risks associated with the procedure to changes in interest rates on existing loans. The rates are reviewed every 3-6 months, which allows the bank to more quickly change the cost of credit, and a change in the cost of credit will also be laid smaller banks on the potential costs of litigation.
Assuming a stable and smooth revaluation of the hryvnia, the banks may begin to transfer its foreign exchange reserves in the hryvnia, which will increase the number of proposals for long mortgages, but not be able to reduce the cost of borrowing due to the fact that the banks will be found exchange rate risks in the interest rate.
Initial contributions decrease, but the return of loans with no down payment is unlikely. Property prices have already reached its bottom, and the pending demand and the deficit will push the price up, which will predict the value of the collateral with great confidence, as the real estate market becomes more liquid than in 2009-2010.
Preparation for Euro 2012 will bring additional investment in the construction sector, both from domestic and from external investors, which will allow construction companies to feel more confident and attract resources for their projects, which further revitalize the property market.
Expect support from the state to reduce the cost of credit for population and development of the SMI is not as free funds in the budget will not (cause - major external payments, financing of projects under Euro-2012).
Do not forget about the unexpected, which may be many more, both in Ukraine and in the world. However, the text which is shown above, can serve as a kind of benchmark, though not claiming an absolute truth.
